New data shows China was on track to deploy 3.1 million robotaxis by 2035, nearly 15 times the size of the U.S. fleet.

However, unlike typical accidents, dozens of Baidu Apollo Go vehicles froze simultaneously on Thursday, March 31. It forced Chinese authorities to halt all new permits and expansion plans.

Today’s visualization shows the robotaxi fleet by region from 2024 to a forecasted 2035.

It is based on company data from Goldman Sachs Research published on April 30, 2026. 

TL;DR

• Financial analysts projected China’s fleet would triple by next year, but the current “emergency brake” on regulations makes these multi-billion dollar targets look increasingly unreachable.

The Statistical Giant

The scale of China’s ambition is laid bare in the latest data from Goldman Sachs Research (April 2026). 

According to Goldman Sachs, China ended 2024 with 1,300 robotaxis on the road, slightly ahead of the United States’ 900.

By the start of 2026, that lead had widened significantly, with China operating 14,100 vehicles compared to 5,600 in the U.S. 

The projections for the next decade are even more lopsided. Goldman Sachs estimated that by 2030, China would have over 705,000 autonomous taxis in operation. 

By 2035, that number was expected to skyrocket to a staggering 3.1 million vehicles. For comparison, the U.S. is projected to reach only 208,600 by that same year.

The Wuhan “Emergency Brake”

These numbers, however, assume a smooth regulatory path that no longer exists. 

The recent incident in Wuhan, where dozens of robotaxis stopped in unison, paralyzing city traffic, transformed a software bug into a national security and safety crisis.

The “synchronized” nature of the failure suggested a systemic vulnerability rather than a random mechanical error. 

In response, Chinese authorities have suspended the issuance of new high-level autonomous driving permits. This freeze prevents any company from expanding its current fleets, launching new pilot projects, or entering new cities.

Projections Meet the Wall

The Goldman Sachs data shows a pivotal jump between 2026 and 2027, where China’s fleet was expected to nearly triple from 14,100 to 40,700 vehicles. 

With the current permit freeze, this 188% year-over-year growth is now mathematically improbable.

The industry is also watching the “Others” category.

This sector, representing markets outside the U.S., China, and Europe, is forecast to grow from 0 vehicles in 2026 to 2.2 million vehicles by 2035. 

Much of this growth was expected to be driven by Chinese tech exports to the Middle East and Southeast Asia. 

If China cannot solve the trust issue at home, its ability to dominate these “Other” global markets will likely vanish.

ELI5

China appears to be building robotaxis much faster than any other country. Experts thought they would have millions of them soon. But recently, a bunch of taxis in one city all broke down at the same time, causing a huge traffic jam. 

Now, the government has stopped allowing new robotaxis until they can prove they are safe. This makes those big growth predictions look like they might not come true.

Source: 

Goldman Sachs  | Bloomberg |