Just 38% of Americans trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle national defense.
This finding is from the result of the Economist/YouGov poll conducted between February 27 and March 2, 2026.
The data reveal the complete absence of any “rally around the flag” effect that historically boosts the president’s party during military conflicts.
It suggests the war may be a political liability rather than an asset.
TL;DR
- Just 38% of Americans trust Republicans more on national defence, while 33% trust Democrats.
- There’s a level of uncertainty, as some Americans do not trust either party to handle the national defense.
Democrats registered a surprisingly competitive 33% despite being out of power and not conducting military operations, narrowing the gap to just 5 percentage points and potentially within polling margins of error.
On the other hand, 29% of Americans either see both parties as equally capable (15%) or remain unsure (14%).
It means, based on the poll, 62% of the country either trusts Democrats more or lacks confidence in Republican defense competence, even as the GOP actively prosecutes a major war.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Label | group | The Democratic Party | Both about the same | Not sure | The Republican Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | U.S. adult citizens | 32.90 | 14.60 | 14.10 | 38.40 | |
| 2 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | 18-29 | Age | 34.50 | 21.90 | 20.40 | 23.20 |
| 3 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | 30-44 | Age | 32.00 | 15.60 | 20.20 | 32.10 |
| 4 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | 45-64 | Age | 30.60 | 9.80 | 11.40 | 48.20 |
| 5 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 14/03/2026 12:16 PM | 65+ | Age | 35.70 | 14.00 | 5.90 | 44.40 |
This Should Be a Republican Blowout
National defence has been one of the Republican Party’s strongest political advantages, often giving the GOP a 15–20 point edge in voter trust on military and security issues.
In 2026, Republicans also hold the presidency under Donald Trump and are actively engaged in military operations against Iran, an effort costing above $800 million per day.
The latest Economist poll shows only 38% of Americans trust Republicans more on national defense, compared with 33% who trust Democrats and a significant share who say both parties are the same or are unsure.
For a party historically defined by its defense credentials, this narrow margin is strikingly weak.
Instead of a commanding lead, Republicans hold only a five-point advantage, showing unusually low confidence given the circumstances.
Democrats Surprisingly Competitive
The poll shows Democrats performing well on national defense, an issue where they have historically lagged behind Republicans.
In past surveys, Democratic trust levels in defense typically fell between 25% and 30%, reflecting the GOP’s long-standing reputation as the stronger party on military and security matters.
In this poll, however, 33% of Americans say they trust Democrats more to handle national defense, placing them five points behind Republicans (38%).
Democrats are currently out of power while the Republican administration is managing an active conflict with Iran.
The numbers show Democrats are nearly tied with Republicans, meaning the war is not strengthening the GOP’s credibility on national security.
29% Trust Neither Party
The poll also reveals a significant level of public uncertainty about both parties on national defense.
About 15% of Americans say both parties would handle defense about the same, while 14% say they are not sure, for a total of 29% overall.
National defense has been a strongly partisan topic, with voters typically favoring mostly Republicans.
The high share of people choosing “both” or “not sure” suggests a growing political dealignment, where neither party fully “owns” the issue in the public mind.
No “Rally Around the Flag” Effect
Wars and international crises usually result in a “rally around the flag” effect, where the public temporarily increases support for the president and the ruling party.
Historically, this effect has been dramatic. After the September 11 attacks, President George W. Bush’s approval rating surged from about 51% to around 90%, the highest ever recorded in Gallup polling.
But the current polling suggests no comparable rally effect is happening.
Even during an active conflict with Iran, only 38% of Americans say they trust Republicans more on national defense.
The numbers show public opinion remains divided, indicating that the traditional rally effect appears largely absent in this case.
ELI5
About 38% of Americans say they trust Republicans more, while 33% say they trust Democrats, leaving only a small gap between the two parties on an issue where Republicans have traditionally held a strong lead.
Many Americans remain uncertain about both sides.
A noticeable share of respondents say they either trust both parties equally or are unsure, indicating a lack of clear confidence in either party’s approach to national security.
About 62% of Americans do not specifically choose Republicans as their preferred party on defense. The numbers mean that public trust on this issue is more divided than usual.
Source:
YouGov | MoneyTalksNews | Gallup