American democracy faces a credibility crisis heading into the 2026 midterm elections, with a new poll revealing that only 12% of adults are fully confident that the process will be fair.
The data for this explainer comes from a YouGov survey.
Published in January 2026, it surveyed a nationally representative sample of 8,002 U.S. adults.
TL;DR
- Republicans now show the highest confidence in the fairness of the 2026 midterm elections, with only 7% saying “no confidence at all.”
- Democrats remain more skeptical, with 15% reporting no confidence, while 19% of independents do as well.
- The 2026 midterms will be closely watched, deciding control of Congress and serving as a key measure of public sentiment midway through the presidential term.
Confidence in the 2026 Midterms Among All Adults
For context, the survey results are based on Americans’ responses to the question, “How much confidence do you have that the 2026 midterm elections will be held fairly?”
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Level of confidence | All adults | Democrats | Independents | Republicans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | A great deal | 12 | 12 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | Quite a bit | 16 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 3 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | A moderate amount | 28 | 29 | 25 | 30 |
| 4 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | Only a little | 19 | 21 | 18 | 17 |
| 5 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | None at all | 14 | 15 | 19 | 17 |
| 6 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 05/02/2026 05:02 PM | Not sure | 11 | 7 | 18 | 17 |
Republicans Now Trust Elections More Than Democrats
As shown in the table, only 7% of Republicans report “no confidence at all” that the 2026 midterm elections will be held fairly, the lowest among the three major political groups.
That is significantly less than the 15% of Democrats and 19% of independents who report no confidence at all.
This represents a shift from Republicans’ post-2020 presidential election views.
Republicans were far less likely than Democrats to say elections were legitimate and fairly run.
For example:
- In 2020, only about 21% of Republican voters reported that the election was well administered, according to Gallup.
- It’s low compared with more than 90% of Republican voters who say the 2024 election was legitimate and accurate.
- Broader polling has consistently shown that Republicans’ confidence in election integrity declined sharply in 2020 (to around 44%), whereas Democrats’ confidence remained relatively high (around 76%).
Now, Republicans report higher relative trust in the fairness of elections.
It goes without saying that trust in elections has become closely tied to which party holds governing power, rather than to stable perceptions of election administration itself.
Only 7% of Republicans Think Elections Will Be Rigged
That surge in Republican confidence is most evident at the extreme end of distrust.
Just 7% of Republicans say they have “no confidence at all” that the 2026 midterm elections will be held fairly, indicating a sharp reduction in outright belief that the process is rigged.
Timing appears to be key.
Republicans currently control the federal executive branch and hold significant power across state governments that oversee elections.
With fewer perceived threats to their political standing, distrust of the system has softened.
What’s Currently Going on for U.S Midterms 2026?
Election Day is scheduled for November 3, 2026, when all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 Senate seats will be contested, along with dozens of state legislative and gubernatorial races.
Throughout early and mid‑2026, state primaries will determine major-party candidates, typically between March and September, depending on the state.
Meanwhile, lawmakers and courts are still wrestling with redistricting disputes that could reshuffle key House districts and influence control of Congress.
The political environment remains tense.
For one, Democratic election officials warn of federal overreach. There are also concerns about voter intimidation and ongoing debates about election policy and administration.
These midterms will not only decide control of Congress but also signal public sentiment midway through the presidential term.
ELI5
Most Republicans now trust the 2026 elections, with only 7% expressing “no confidence,” whereas more Democrats (15%) and independents (19%) remain concerned.
Fewer Republicans doubt the system than in 2020, and everyone is watching the midterms closely because they will determine who controls Congress and reflect public sentiment.
Sources
AP News | Katie Couric Media | Wikipedia | The Washington Post | Her Campus | YouGov | Ipsos | Gallup