Last week alone, prediction markets processed 23.6 million transactions, marking a 15-fold increase in just five months. 

Over the past year, these platforms handled only a few million bets each week. Then, in October 2025, the numbers surged dramatically. 

Instead of speculation, online crowds are placing real wagers on future events. 

The visualization above uses data from Dune to illustrate the volume of bets placed on 8 major prediction betting platforms as of the last week in January, 2026.

TLDR

• Prediction markets recorded 28.5 million weekly bets in January 2026, with Kalshi accounting for 49% and Polymarket for 47%. 
• Daily trading volume in prediction markets is estimated at 4 million, higher than at many stock exchanges, including Nasdaq Nordic (654,589) and the London Stock Exchange (600,000). 

To put things in perspective, 28.5 million weekly bets translate to approximately 4 million transactions daily, around 166,000 per hour, 2,777 per minute, and 46 per second (when loosely extrapolated). 

This rapid growth indicates that prediction markets are expanding more quickly than many traditional betting platforms.

For comparison, this volume exceeds the daily transactions of some stock exchanges. 

The London Stock Exchange reported 602,000 trades per day in mid-2025, which is below figures pulled in by prediction markets. 

It also surpasses smaller exchanges such as Nasdaq Nordic and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with 630,000 trades daily in 2025 and 1.7 million in early 2026, respectively. 

This shows that prediction markets are becoming increasingly significant.

Two Platforms Control 96% of the Market Transaction

Kalshi leads with 13.9 million weekly bets, representing 49% of the total. Polymarket is close behind, with 13.4 million bets, accounting for 47%. 

These two platforms handle a combined total of 27.3 million transactions, clearly surpassing their competitors.

The remaining six platforms account for only 1.2 million bets, approximately 4% of the market. This level of concentration indicates that the market is led primarily by these two major players.

What Are People Betting On?

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching and campaigns intensifying, betting activity is focusing on races such as California’s governor’s race and potential cabinet changes in the Trump administration. 

According to the Chronicle Journals, traders are betting on impeachment prospects and policy shifts, with Polymarket recording $329 million in wagers on Federal Reserve chair nominations.

But it doesn’t end there.

1. Geopolitical tensions generate significant betting, including $155 million on U.S. strikes against Iran and an 89% chance of Somalia being the next target. 
2. Markets also reflect bets on the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and on China-Taiwan tensions, mirroring January’s increase in war-related bets.
3. Economic forecasts are prominent, with strong bets on Fed rate cuts, such as an 80% chance of a decision after March 2026, along with bets on recession and inflation. 
4. Cryptocurrency markets are active, with predictions that Bitcoin could reach $200K and approvals for Ethereum ETFs, which have helped Polymarket surpass $1 billion in monthly trading volume.
5. Sports betting, like over $800 million on Super Bowl LX, covers MVPs, winners, and halftime entertainment.

Meanwhile, wagers on AI advancements, including timelines for AGI and tech valuation, along with markets on best models such as Anthropic versus Google, contributed to the broader $12 billion volume observed in January.

How New Players and Regulations Shift Prediction Markets

In 2026, Coinbase’s acquisition of The Clearing Company and CME Group’s partnership with FanDuel for FanDuel Predicts introduced fresh competition. 

This challenges the dominance of Kalshi and Polymarket, which currently hold a 96% share, as crypto companies such as Crypto.com and sports betting firms such as DraftKings enter the market.

Supportive regulatory decisions from the CFTC are encouraging expansion, with industry revenues expected to reach $10 billion by 2030, up from $2 billion today. 

While partnerships with media outlets and efforts to combat misinformation enhance the market’s credibility, risks such as insider trading remain a concern.

ELI5

Prediction markets function like online betting sites, where participants wager real money on future events, including elections and other live outcomes. 

They are increasingly popular because they often predict outcomes more accurately than polls, and platforms such as Polymarket enable participation using cryptocurrency or stablecoins.

Last week, these markets reached a record 28.5 million bets, a significant increase from a few million bets per week a year ago. 

This growth began in late 2025, fueled by geopolitical tensions and crypto fluctuations, turning casual guesses into serious stakes.

Polymarket leads with over 13 million weekly transactions, outperforming rivals such as Kalshi by focusing on high-stakes global topics and offering a user-friendly design. Its weekly trading volume exceeds $2 billion, making it a preferred platform for informed bettors seeking reliable odds.

Sources: 

Dune, Polymarket, Rest of World, Bitmex, Bloomberg, Defi Rate, International Banker