At the COP30 in Belém last year, Brazil, India, and China sparred over coal commitments. 

China pledged to accelerate reductions in coal use, but India resisted binding targets, arguing that it needs coal for development.

This visualisation presents a forecast of coal demand between China and India, based on data from the 2025 World Oil Outlook Report by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). 

TL;DR

• China’s coal demand is projected to decline by 53% over the next 25 years as it transitions to clean energy.
• By 2050, India may consume one-quarter of the world’s coal.
• Export markets, such as Australia and Indonesia, will still bear the hit as the economy becomes less coal-reliant. 

Coal Demand by Region (2024–2050)

The most striking data point is China’s coal demand collapsing by 53% (from 46.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2024 to just 22.1 mboe/d) by 2050. 

That’s a loss of 24.8 mboe/d, declining at an annual rate of 2.9%. 

In practical terms, China (which currently accounts for 57.3% of global coal consumption) will see its share decline to 43% by 2050. 

So, What’s The Big Deal?

China is the global coal market. It consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined. 

This projection suggests China’s renewable energy buildout (remember, they installed 380 GW of solar in just the first half of 2025) is fundamentally restructuring global energy. 

For the average person, this means China is betting its economic future on solar, wind, and nuclear. 

The factories that make your phone, clothes, and electronics will increasingly run on clean energy rather than coal-fired power plants.

India Could Be the New Coal Champion

While China exists, India is doubling down. 

India’s coal demand grows from 10.1 mboe/d (2024) to 12.9 mboe/d (2050. 

That’s a 28% increase over 26 years, growing at an annual rate of 1.0%. 

More importantly, India’s global share doubles from 12.3% to 25.1%. By 2050, India will consume one-quarter of the world’s coal, second only to China.

Why? India’s GDP is projected to grow 6-7% annually for decades, driven by manufacturing, urbanization, and a population now exceeding 1.4 billion. 

Unlike China, which built substantial renewable capacity early, India remains heavily reliant on coal for baseload power. 

The country has abundant domestic coal reserves (the 4th-largest globally), and adding renewables quickly enough to meet new demand is challenging, let alone replacing existing coal plants. 

Export Markets To Pay the Price

It now appears that the global coal trade is collapsing. 

If global demand falls by 37%, exporters face intense competition. 

Australia and Indonesia (the world’s top 2 coal exporters) are pivoting. Australia is betting on hydrogen and critical minerals exports to India, China, and Japan. 

Indonesia is pushing domestic coal-to-electricity projects to reduce reliance on exports. 

For coal-mining communities in Wyoming, Queensland, or Kalimantan, this entails job losses and economic restructuring.

Recall that coal prices spiked in 2022 (Russia-Ukraine war disrupted supplies), then crashed in 2023-2024 as China’s demand fell faster than expected. 

Australian thermal coal, which reached $400 per tonne in 2022, now trades at around $120- $ 150 per tonne. Indonesian coal is even cheaper. 

This aligns with OPEC’s projection that “oversupply from China’s declining demand is crushing prices.” 

India is the primary beneficiary, as it purchases low-cost coal from distressed exporters.

ELI5: Demand for Coal 2024-2050

OPEC expects global coal use to decline sharply, by about 37%, as countries shift to cleaner energy. China is doing most of the heavy lifting here, thanks to its massive push into solar, wind, and other renewables.

On the other hand, India’s coal use is projected to increase by nearly 30% as it focuses on powering economic growth and meeting energy demand. 

So it’s like the world splits in two: richer countries and China move away from coal, while India and parts of Asia keep using it for decades to come.

Sources: 

OPEC World Oil Outlook |