Four countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait) have cut oil production by 6.7 million barrels per day, representing 32% of the Strait of Hormuz’s normal 20.9 million barrels per day throughput.
The ongoing war’s “effective closure” of the Middle East’s main export route forces storage tanks to fill and output to shrink.
Today’s visualization shows the pre-war baselines recorded in the first half of 2025, according to EIA data.
TL;DR
- The Strait of Hormuz moved around 20.9 million barrels of oil per day in early 2025.
- The war disruption is worse than COVID, with 14.2 million barrels daily.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Category (mbpd) | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (H1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 12/03/2026 04:32 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 12/03/2026 04:32 PM | Total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz | 19.20 | 19.70 | 21.90 | 21.80 | 20.70 | 20.90 |
| 2 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 12/03/2026 04:32 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 12/03/2026 04:32 PM | Crude oil and condensate | 14.40 | 14.70 | 16.20 | 15.80 | 14.60 | 14.70 |
| 3 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 12/03/2026 04:32 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 12/03/2026 04:32 PM | Petroleum products | 4.80 | 5.10 | 5.60 | 6.00 | 6.10 | 6.10 |
| 4 | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 12/03/2026 04:32 PM | emmanuel-ashemiriogwa | 12/03/2026 04:32 PM | LNG flows through Strait of Hormuz (billion cubic feet per day) | 10.70 | 10.80 | 11.00 | 10.60 | 10.50 | 11.40 |
The data showed that the Strait of Hormuz handled around 20.9 million barrels of oil per day in the first half of 2025 under normal conditions.
The 14.7 million barrels per day were crude oil and condensate, while 6.1 million barrels per day were refined petroleum products, such as diesel.
The route is also important for natural gas shipments. Around the same period, about 11.4 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per day went through the strait.
These figures represent the baseline level of energy flows before the present conflict, indicating how much of the global oil and gas supply depends on this single chokepoint.
War Has Cut the Flow by 32%
Since the escalation, shipments from major Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have fallen by a combined 6.7 million barrels per day.
This reduction is equivalent to 32% of the strait’s normal oil flow.
If those cuts hold, the others would reduce to about 14.2 million barrels per day.
This would mean that the strait is not fully closed, but operating at a reduced level. Analysts describe it as a “near-standstill”.
Worse Than COVID Impact
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is bigger than the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2020, when global travel and fuel demand collapsed, about 19.2 million barrels of oil per day flowed through the strait.
Current estimates indicate that flows may have fallen to 14.2 million barrels per day after major Gulf exporters reduced shipments.
The wartime disruption is more than the pandemic slowdown, marking the first time flows through the Strait of Hormuz have gone below 2020 levels.
21% of Global Oil Flows Here
With global oil production around 100 million barrels per day, about 21% passes through this narrow waterway, which is roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
The current disruption highlights that importance.
A reduction of 6.7 million barrels per day from major Gulf exporters is equivalent to 6–7% of the total global oil supply.
A single chokepoint disruption can remove around 6% of the world’s available oil, which helps explain why markets react quickly to instability in the region.
The Storage Tank Crisis
When exports through the Strait of Hormuz slow, producers face a major logistical problem: the oil has nowhere to go.
About 20.9 million barrels per day move through the strait, including 14.7 million barrels of crude oil and 6.1 million barrels of refined petroleum products move through the strait under normal conditions.
If those exports are blocked, the supply in exporting countries decreases.
Storage terminals, tank farms, and floating storage can only hold so much oil.
Once those tanks are filled, producers are forced to stop pumping at the wellhead, as continuing to pump oil without available storage or export routes becomes impossible.
Crude Was Already Declining
Before the current disruption, crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had already been declining.
Crude and condensate flows peaked at about 16.2 million barrels per day in 2022 and had fallen to around 14.7 million barrels per day in 2025.
This indicates a decline of about 1.5 million barrels per day, or 9%, driven by coordinated production cuts from OPEC and aimed at stabilizing global oil prices.
With an additional 6.7 million barrels per day of exports disrupted, the wartime impact is hitting a market already operating with reduced crude flows.
ELI5
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, was carrying about 20.9 million barrels of oil per day in early 2025. Since the conflict disrupted exports from major Gulf producers, flows have fallen to around 14.2 million barrels per day, a larger disruption than seen during the COVID-19 demand crash.
The shock is hitting a market that was already seeing declining crude shipments, meaning the war is worsening an existing slowdown in oil flows through the strait.
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