For most of modern history, one fact about world population held steady: China was the most populous country on Earth. 

That is no longer true. 

India moved into first place in 2023, and the shift marks the start of a much larger reordering of the global ranking that will play out over the rest of this century.

The headline three are close at the top today but heading in opposite directions, and that divergence is the real story.

TL;DR

• The three most populous countries in 2025 are India, with about 1.5 billion people, China with 1.4 billion, and the United States with 347 million.
• India is expected to keep growing until it peaks at 1.7 billion in 2061, then gradually decline, while China is projected to fall sharply to 633 million by 2100.
• Five countries are expected to contribute more than 60% of the world’s population growth by 2100: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Tanzania.

The data below are from the UN Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024 Revision, medium variant.

All The World’s Population By Country (2026)

Two giants, two directions

India and China both sit near 1.4 to 1.5 billion today, but their futures could hardly be more different. 

India is still growing and will not peak for decades. 

China has already begun to shrink, and the decline is projected to be steep. 

China is likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century, losing more than 786 million people and returning to a size comparable to that of the late 1950s. 

The cause is decades of very low fertility, now baked into the country’s age structure.

The list is reshaping around Africa

The countries climbing the ranking are almost all in Sub-Saharan Africa. 

Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and Tanzania are growing quickly because of young populations and higher birth rates, while much of East Asia and Europe is contracting. 

Over this century, the ranking gradually tilts from Asia toward Africa.

The United States is the notable exception among wealthy nations. It is projected to keep growing, toward 421 million by 2100, largely because immigration offsets a birth rate below replacement. 

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ELI5

India just became the country with the largest population, surpassing China. 

But China’s population is starting to shrink a lot, while India will keep growing for a while. 

In the far future, the countries with the most people will increasingly be in Africa, because that is where the most babies are being born.

Sources:

Pew Research Center | United Nations | UN Population Division