It’s the season of love. 

American consumers are projected to reach an all-time high in Valentine’s Day expenditure this month. 

This estimation comes from the National Retail Federation (NRF) annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics and released in January 2026. 

The graphics above show historical Valentine’s Day spending plans and a pie chart showing how much of the total will go toward various gifting ideas for 2026 Valentine’s Day, based on people’s responses. 

TL;DR

• U.S. Valentine’s Day spending is projected to reach a record $29.1 billion in 2026, with average per-person spending rising to nearly $200.
• Jewelry accounts for the largest share of expected spending at $7 billion, despite being a planned purchase by only 25% of shoppers.
• Evening out spending is expected to reach $6.3 billion, supported by Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday.

U.S. Valentine’s Day Spending Trends (2016–2026)

Valentine’s Day spending in the U.S. has steadily increased over the past decade, reaching a projected $29.1 billion in 2026. 

This represents the highest total spending on record, up from $27.5 billion in 2025.

On a per-person basis, spending has also increased, with the average consumer expected to spend nearly $200 this year, up from $189 last year. 

Looking at the longer trend, spending dipped significantly in 2018 and 2019 but rebounded sharply in 2020 and beyond. 

Jewelry is the King of Cash

Now that we know the average shopper is expected to spend nearly $200 on Valentine’s Day, it’s worth examining where that money is going. 

While candy tops the popularity list, with 56% of consumers planning to purchase it, jewelry accounts for the largest share of total spending. 

The difference comes down to price: a single box of chocolates may cost a few dollars, while a single piece of jewelry can cost hundreds or even thousands. 

• In practical terms, for every 100 pieces of candy bought, a single piece of jewelry can equal or exceed that total in value, making jewelry the “king of cash” despite its lower purchase volume.

Other popular spending categories include an evening out, which may consist of a dinner at a restaurant or a casual outing such as a picnic, and flowers, particularly roses, which remain a classic Valentine’s gesture. 

Americans are expected to spend $6.3 billion on evenings out and $3.1 billion on flowers. 

This shows that while more consumers may opt for accessible gifts like candy or cards, high-value gifts and experiences still account for the largest share of total spending.

“Valentine’s Day is a cherished holiday that resonates with many Americans, as seen with expected record-breaking spending this year,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. 

“Much of that growth is driven by middle- and high-income shoppers who are expanding their gift lists to include friends, co-workers and even pets in addition to loved ones.”

The Saturday Bonus

Since February 14 falls on a Saturday in 2026, more consumers have the time and flexibility to plan a night out, and that is reflected in spending. 

Weekend dates tend to attract stronger participation in “evening out” activities, helping push spending in this category toward an expected $6.3 billion.

Restaurants and food venues are offering special Valentine’s dining deals, many designed for couples or shared experiences. 

For example, at the time of publishing: 

• California Pizza Kitchen is offering a “Sweet Deal for Two” with a starter, entrées, and dessert for about $60
• Carrabba’s Italian Grill is serving a four-course dinner for two over Valentine’s week. 
• P.F. Chang’s has a multi-course experience for around $89.99
• TGI Fridays is promoting a three-course meal for two over the holiday weekend. 
• Even casual options like Pizza Hut’s heart-shaped pizza and Ruby Tuesday’s “Cupid’s Dinner for Two” give consumers themed date-night choices.

There’s a Potential Spike in “Self-Care”

The survey showed that about 27% of consumers plan to purchase Valentine’s Day gifts for themselves, with an additional segment considering it.

Common self-care purchases include clothing and accessories (35%), beauty and personal care products (25%), meals or takeout (32%), and spa or wellness experiences (13%).

For those not celebrating with a partner or going out for the evening, self-gifting offers a way to still participate in the holiday. 

ELI5

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Valentine’s Day spending in the U.S. is hitting record levels, with people spending nearly $200 on average. 

Candy is projected to be the most purchased item, but jewelry costs more, so it generates the most revenue overall. 

Because the holiday falls on a Saturday, more people said they will go out, and many also plan to spend on themselves.

Sources:

Retail Insider | 6ix Retail, 2026 | NRF | FOX 5 New York